Double-digit growth for new listings for the sixth straight month

OVERVIEW

Activity in the Washington DC Metro Region continues to be steady and strong as we enter fall.  Sales increased in September as compared to this time last year.  Pending contracts also increased, but at a slower rate than earlier this year.  The increase in pending contracts was driven by condos and detached homes.  Total inventory continues to decline, but as in prior months, the pace of the decline is slowing.  Both townhomes and condos had year-over-year increases in active listings, but were offset by the decline in detached home listings.  Median sales prices reached their highest September-level in six years likely as a result of strong demand and tight supply.  Condo properties led the growth in closed sales while detached homes had the highest increase in median sales price.  Favorable market conditions continue to cause new sellers to enter the market, resulting in a 16.5 percent increase in listings from this time last year.  This is the sixth consecutive double-digit increase for this indicator.  Homes are selling quickly; the median-days-on-market was 17 days in September, which is the lowest September-level since the peak of the housing boom in 2005.  Federal uncertainty may play a stronger role over the coming months as the impact of the Federal Shutdown and debt ceiling are felt.

Click here to view PDF version of this report

The New York Times editorial concerning the housing recovery has received lots of national attention, and for good reason.  The editorial board raises important questions regarding just how much the recent improvements in the national housing market have resulted from buyers collective fear of looming interest rate hikes.  Hard to say, but this has certainly factored into some of the recent activity both nationally and locally.  It could be one of the main drivers behind the (welcome) increase in new listings over the last 5 months in the DC Metro market, which we elaborate upon in this recent blog post.

Another point made by the NY Times editorial hasn't reared its head in the DC Metro market...at least not yet. 

Similarly, home prices have gone up, rising 12.4 percent from July 2012 to July 2013. But month-to-month price gains have slowed considerably the last several months. This suggests that prices have begun to plateau, even as millions of homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth are counting on rising prices to restore their equity. [emphasis added]

The 10-year average July-to-August month-to-month price change is -2.5% for the DC Metro area.  The 2013 July-to-August percent change: -2.4%. We'll keep an eye on this indicator when the September stats are reported on the 10th, but don't be surprised if there is a month-to-month decrease again: The 10-year average August-to-September median sale price change is -5.2%.